With only two matchweeks remaining, the Champions League league stage is getting to the business end, and a win for ourselves against Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday could prove pivotal.
We sit third in the 36-team league table, behind only Liverpool and Barcelona, having amassed 13 points from our six group games so far to put us firmly in contention for a spot in the coveted top eight.
And those spots could prove crucial in the season’s final shakeup. As well as receiving a bye into the round of 16 and avoiding two extra play-off round games involving the clubs finishing ninth to 24th, the elite eight will receive home advantage in the second legs of those ties in March.
The benefits of maintaining a spot in the top eight are huge, but the question remains - how many points would be enough to clinch one?
At the start of the season, Opta decided to try and answer that. Using their supercomputer, they simulated the league phase fixtures 50,000 times to see how many points were needed to finish in the top eight, and indeed the top 24.
And for us, there is some good news. Opta found that in 99% of their simulations, teams who collected 10 points made it into the play-off round. That means that if their calculations are correct, we should have safely made it through to the last-16 as a minimum, and when you look at the current table, we are five points clear of Zagreb who occupy the 24th and final qualifying spot.
Encouragingly, even nine points proved to be enough in 69% of simulations, so it seems we can now turn our attention to securing a priceless top-eight spot - and Opta has a target in mind.
Following their 50,000 simulations, they believe 16 points will be enough. That was the total that brought qualification in 98% of scenarios, while 15 points was sufficient for eighth place in 73% of simulations. 14 points meanwhile was enough in just 28% of the supercomputer’s simulations, meaning 15 seems to be the magic number to target.
With 13 in our pocket already, that would mean one win from our final two games against Dinamo Zagreb and Girona would see us into the last 16, enjoy two midweeks off watching the action on TV, and take one step closer to getting our hands on the most coveted piece of silverware in European football.
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